Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 57%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Sacramento departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Saturday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 48% over 21 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM PST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Sacramento departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 57%
What changed: 48% → 57% since the 7:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 21 departures scheduled from Sacramento 3–6 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SMF departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 21 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM PST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?