Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Saturday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 14 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.6 over 63 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 19 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 14 → 19 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~18.7 over 63 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 25 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 19 → 25 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 25 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (40%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~25.0 over 63 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM EST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 27 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 25 → 27 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~27.1 over 63 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 27 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.1 over 63 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 9 → 12 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.9 over 63 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 12 → 7 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 63 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.3 over 63 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM EST · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 7 → 13 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 64 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.2 over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.