tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation MCO departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among MCO departures 6–9 PM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among MCO departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.9 over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 11 among MCO departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 6 → 11 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~11.3 over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 10:00 AM EST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among MCO departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 11 → 15 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~15.2 over 102 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 12:00 PM EST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among MCO departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 15 → 10 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.0 over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 1:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 18:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 11 among MCO departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 10 → 11 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 102 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.6 over 102 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 2:00 PM EST · 2.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  6. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among MCO departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 11 → 14 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~13.7 over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 3:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  7. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 22 among MCO departures 6–9 PM Saturday

    What changed: about 14 → 22 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~22.3 over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 4:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.