Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 74 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
What changed: about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 114 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 102 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from MCO 3–6 PM Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 12 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 106 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 90 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from MCO noon–3 PM Sunday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 11:32 PM and 12:32 AM EST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:32 PM–12:32 AM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 67%Typical 24%
Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from MCO 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 14 departures that took off between 10:01 PM and 11:01 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: about 14 → 22 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 14 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 108 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: 58% → 68% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from MCO 3–6 PM Saturday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 58% → 70% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from MCO 6–9 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 55% → 65% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from MCO noon–3 PM Saturday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 50 departures scheduled from MCO (MCO) between 11:31 AM and 1:01 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 34. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into MCO is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 11:31 AM–1:01 PM ESTTight turns 10 of 34Share 29%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View MCO
What changed: about 9 → 14 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 101 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 14 → 11 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 121 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 121 departures scheduled from MCO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: about 6 → 11 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 101 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 12:04 AM and 1:04 AM EST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 24% of arrivals at MCO arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:04 AM–1:04 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 100%Typical 24%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View MCO
Tailodds’ model gives the 117 departures scheduled from MCO 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 30%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 13 departures that took off between 9:31 PM and 10:31 PM EST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. MCO typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 30 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
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Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?