Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among MCO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 9 cancellations among MCO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 117 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MCO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.0 over 117 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among MCO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 9 → 13 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 117 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MCO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.7 over 117 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM EST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 7 among MCO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 13 → 7 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 117 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MCO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.4 over 117 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among MCO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 7 → 15 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 118 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MCO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.7 over 118 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among MCO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 15 → 7 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 120 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MCO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.0 over 120 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among MCO departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 7 → 14 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 120 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MCO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.3 over 120 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?