Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among MCO departures noon–3 PM Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 5 cancellations among MCO departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 101 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MCO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.1 over 101 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 12 among MCO departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 5 → 12 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 101 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MCO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.6 over 101 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among MCO departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 12 → 5 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 101 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MCO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.5 over 101 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among MCO departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 5 → 12 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 101 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MCO departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.1 over 101 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?