tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 81 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant New Delay MCO departures

Model forecasts 44% delay risk for MCO departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

Current state
New
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View MCOFlights at MCO

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for MCO departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from MCO 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMCO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 114 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?