tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation EWR departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 9 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 107 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.4 over 107 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 7:00 PM EST · 9.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 13 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    What changed: about 9 → 13 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 107 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~13.4 over 107 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 8:00 PM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 02:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    What changed: about 13 → 10 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 108 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.3 over 108 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 4:00 AM EST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Newark departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    What changed: about 10 → 13 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 108 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~12.8 over 108 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 6:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.