tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 82 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay EWR departures

Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Newark departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Newark departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Newark 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 102 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 9:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.