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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation FLL departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started: Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST
Latest activity: Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST
Updates: 4

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Sat Nov 14, 10:57 PM EST

Model expects about 8 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 74 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~7.5 over 74 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM EST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 10:57 PM EST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 10:57 PM EST (2026-11-15 03:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

What changed: about 8 → 10 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 74 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~9.9 over 74 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST · 9.1 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM EST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 11:56 PM EST (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sun Nov 15, 3:56 AM EST

Updated model now expects about 14 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

What changed: about 10 → 14 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 74 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	FLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~13.9 over 74 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
Source event time	Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM EST
Ingested	Sun Nov 15, 3:56 AM EST
Published here	Sun Nov 15, 3:56 AM EST (2026-11-15 08:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sun Nov 15, 6:56 AM EST