tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay HOU departures

Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 55%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Hobby departures 6–9 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Monday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 1:00 PM CDT · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 52%

    What changed: 40% → 52% since the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 2:00 PM CDT · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Hobby departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 55%

    What changed: 52% → 55% since the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 25 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetHOU departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 25 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 4:00 PM CDT · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Mon Oct 19, 6:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.