tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 86 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Significant New Delay EWR departures

Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

Current state
New
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View EWRFlights at EWR

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 38 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?