tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 75 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 8 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SNA departures

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Monday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-19 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 26 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 19, 2:00 PM PDT · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Oct 19, 6:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.