tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BOS departures

Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Boston departures 6–9 PM Wednesday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View BOSFlights at BOS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Boston departures 6–9 PM Wednesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-21 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)43% over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Oct 21, 4:00 PM EDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-21 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Wed Oct 21, 6:00 PM EDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.