tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 75 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 8 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SNA departures

Model lowers Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 40%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 7:27 AM PDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 PM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 28 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Oct 21, 10:00 PM PDT · 19.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 05:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 40%, near normal

    What changed: 44% → 40%; calm-weather level 34%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Thursday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 28 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 6:00 AM PDT · 10.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 14:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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