tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 75 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 8 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay SNA departures

Model raises Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SNAFlights at SNA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 28 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 12:00 PM PDT · 4.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 67%

    What changed: 52% → 67% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 28 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 4:00 PM PDT · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Oct 22, 6:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.