Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 7.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 73 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 40%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 64% → 46%
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:33 PM–11:33 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 27%
What changed: late share 54% → 64%
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:13 PM and 11:13 PM EST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:13 PM–11:13 PM ESTSample 14 flightsLate 64%Typical 27%
What changed: late share 78% → 54%
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 9:40 PM and 10:40 PM EST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:40 PM–10:40 PM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 27%
What changed: late share 78% → 45%
Of 20 departures that took off between 8:37 PM and 9:37 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:37 PM–9:37 PM ESTSample 20 flightsLate 45%Typical 52%
What changed: late share 56% → 78%
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 7:40 PM and 8:40 PM EST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:40 PM–8:40 PM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 78%Typical 27%
What changed: late share 67% → 78%
Of 23 departures that took off between 7:31 PM and 8:31 PM EST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 41% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:31 PM–8:31 PM ESTSample 23 flightsLate 78%Typical 41%
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 68%Horizon 0.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 5:06 PM and 6:06 PM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 5:06 PM–6:06 PM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 56%Typical 27%
What changed: 67% → 67% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 67%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 67% → 67%
Of 21 departures that took off between 3:39 PM and 4:39 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 3:39 PM–4:39 PM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 67%Typical 40%
What changed: 64% → 67% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 67%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 64% → 64% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 64%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 57% → 56% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 65% at worst → 24% now
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 12:53 PM and 1:53 PM EST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 12:53 PM–1:53 PM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 24%Typical 27%
What changed: late share 59% → 67%
Of 18 departures that took off between 12:02 PM and 1:02 PM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:02 PM–1:02 PM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 67%Typical 31%
What changed: 55% → 64% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 64%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 43% → 57% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: late share 67% → 59%
Of 17 departures that took off between 11:41 AM and 12:41 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 31% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:41 AM–12:41 PM ESTSample 17 flightsLate 59%Typical 31%
Of 31 arrivals that landed between 10:46 AM and 11:46 AM EST, 18 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:46 AM–11:46 AM ESTSample 31 flightsLate 58%Typical 27%
What changed: late share 58% → 67%
Of 18 departures that took off between 10:31 AM and 11:31 AM EST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:31 AM–11:31 AM ESTSample 18 flightsLate 67%Typical 24%
Of 19 departures that took off between 10:11 AM and 11:11 AM EST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:11 AM–11:11 AM ESTSample 19 flightsLate 58%Typical 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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