Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
What changed: end 7:15 PM EDT → 8:15 PM EDT
The FAA’s airport status lists a ground stop for flights bound for LaGuardia (LGA), citing “thunderstorms”. Flights to LGA are held at their departure airports until 8:15 PM EDT. The FAA lists the chance of an extension as “MEDIUM”.
What changed: range 61–75 → 76–90 min
The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 76–90 min at LaGuardia (LGA), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.
What changed: range 46–60 → 61–75 min
The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 61–75 min at LaGuardia (LGA), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.
What changed: range 31–45 → 46–60 min
The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 46–60 min at LaGuardia (LGA), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.
The FAA’s airport status lists a ground stop for flights bound for LaGuardia (LGA), citing “thunderstorms”. Flights to LGA are held at their departure airports until 7:15 PM EDT. The FAA lists the chance of an extension as “MEDIUM”.
What changed: 62% → 73% since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 73%Horizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 54% → 62% since the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 62%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: range 16–30 → 31–45 min
The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 31–45 min at LaGuardia (LGA), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.
What changed: 59% → 54% since the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 54%Horizon 4.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 16–30 min at LaGuardia (LGA), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 59%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from LaGuardia 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 64%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to LaGuardia (LGA), citing “thunderstorms”; it gives an average delay of 31 min and a maximum of 88 min. Departures to LGA are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.
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