Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 hstaleForecast cycle 66 minLightning 223 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old).
No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.
Lightning is stale (223 h old).
Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.
Weather observations is stale.
Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:58 PM and 10:58 PM PST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 24 arrivals that landed between 9:25 PM and 10:25 PM PST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 40%Horizon 11.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 19 departures that took off between 8:16 PM and 9:16 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 19 departures that took off between 7:33 PM and 8:33 PM PST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 4:58 PM and 5:58 PM PST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 4:33 PM and 5:33 PM PST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 17 departures that took off between 4:29 PM and 5:29 PM PST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 2:46 PM and 3:46 PM PST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 22 departures that took off between 1:26 PM and 2:26 PM PST, 17 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 33 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 1:15 PM and 2:45 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 19. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 1:15 PM–2:45 PM PSTTight turns 10 of 19Share 53%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesTimeline (3)View SAN
Of 18 departures that took off between 11:50 AM and 12:50 PM PST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 11:25 AM and 12:25 PM PST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of the 45 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 12:05 PM and 1:35 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 30. For 17 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 12:05 PM–1:35 PM PSTTight turns 17 of 30Share 57%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesTimeline (3)View SAN
Of 19 arrivals that landed between 9:53 AM and 10:53 AM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:53 AM–10:53 AM PSTSample 19 flightsLate 53%Typical 26%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (7)View SAN
Of the 31 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 9:56 AM and 11:26 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 19. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 9:56 AM–11:26 AM PSTTight turns 8 of 19Share 42%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesTimeline (3)View SAN
Of 16 departures that took off between 7:44 PM and 8:44 PM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 22 departures that took off between 6:35 PM and 7:35 PM PST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 18 departures that took off between 6:15 PM and 7:15 PM PST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 25 departures that took off between 9:58 PM and 10:58 PM PST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 9:25 PM and 10:25 PM PST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.