Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:58 PM and 10:58 PM PST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 40%Horizon 11.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 19 departures that took off between 8:16 PM and 9:16 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 33 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 1:15 PM and 2:45 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 19. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 1:15 PM–2:45 PM PSTTight turns 10 of 19Share 53%
Of 16 departures that took off between 7:44 PM and 8:44 PM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 25 departures that took off between 9:58 PM and 10:58 PM PST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 9:25 PM and 10:25 PM PST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 36 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 10:27 AM and 11:57 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 28. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 10:27 AM–11:57 AM PSTTight turns 8 of 28Share 29%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View SAN
Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Monday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 55 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Monday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Monday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 10:58 PM and 11:58 PM PST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 23 arrivals that landed between 7:33 PM and 8:33 PM PST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 3:19 PM and 4:19 PM PST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Sunday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 38 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 1:12 PM and 2:42 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 27. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 1:12 PM–2:42 PM PSTTight turns 11 of 27Share 41%
Of 19 departures that took off between 9:59 AM and 10:59 AM PST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:59 AM–10:59 AM PSTSample 19 flightsLate 47%Typical 20%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View SAN
Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Saturday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?