tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 64 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 41%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 7:56 PM PST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 33 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 8, 6:00 PM PST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 41%, near normal

    What changed: 47% → 41%; calm-weather level 34%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 33 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 8, 7:00 PM PST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?