tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 79 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model forecasts 58% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 58% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 57 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 8, 4:00 PM PST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 8, 6:01 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.