tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 64 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 34%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 6:57 AM PST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 90 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 5:00 AM PST · 5.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 14:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 34%, near normal

    What changed: 44% → 34%; calm-weather level 29%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Saturday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)34% over 90 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 6:00 AM PST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?