Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 62% → 56%
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 9:58 PM and 10:58 PM PST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:58 PM–10:58 PM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 56%Typical 26%
What changed: late share 44% → 62%
Of 24 arrivals that landed between 9:25 PM and 10:25 PM PST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:25 PM–10:25 PM PSTSample 24 flightsLate 62%Typical 26%
Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 40%Horizon 11.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 79% → 63%
Of 19 departures that took off between 8:16 PM and 9:16 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:16 PM–9:16 PM PSTSample 19 flightsLate 63%Typical 36%
What changed: late share 59% → 79%
Of 19 departures that took off between 7:33 PM and 8:33 PM PST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:33 PM–8:33 PM PSTSample 19 flightsLate 79%Typical 36%
What changed: late share 62% → 44%
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 4:58 PM and 5:58 PM PST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 4:58 PM–5:58 PM PSTSample 18 flightsLate 44%Typical 26%
What changed: late share 50% → 62%
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 4:33 PM and 5:33 PM PST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 4:33 PM–5:33 PM PSTSample 21 flightsLate 62%Typical 26%
What changed: late share 77% → 59%
Of 17 departures that took off between 4:29 PM and 5:29 PM PST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 4:29 PM–5:29 PM PSTSample 17 flightsLate 59%Typical 37%
What changed: late share 67% → 50%
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 2:46 PM and 3:46 PM PST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 2:46 PM–3:46 PM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 26%
What changed: late share 56% → 77%
Of 22 departures that took off between 1:26 PM and 2:26 PM PST, 17 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 1:26 PM–2:26 PM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 77%Typical 34%
Tailodds’ model gives the 76 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 22.0 hModel famA-fc-v3
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 52%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: tight share 57% → 53%
Of the 33 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 1:15 PM and 2:45 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 19. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 1:15 PM–2:45 PM PSTTight turns 10 of 19Share 53%
Of 18 departures that took off between 11:50 AM and 12:50 PM PST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:50 AM–12:50 PM PSTSample 18 flightsLate 56%Typical 29%
What changed: late share 53% → 67%
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 11:25 AM and 12:25 PM PST, 12 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:25 AM–12:25 PM PSTSample 18 flightsLate 67%Typical 26%
What changed: tight share 42% → 57%
Of the 45 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 12:05 PM and 1:35 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 30. For 17 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 12:05 PM–1:35 PM PSTTight turns 17 of 30Share 57%
Of 19 arrivals that landed between 9:53 AM and 10:53 AM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 26% of arrivals at San Diego arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:53 AM–10:53 AM PSTSample 19 flightsLate 53%Typical 26%
Of the 31 departures scheduled from San Diego (SAN) between 9:56 AM and 11:26 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 19. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SAN is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 9:56 AM–11:26 AM PSTTight turns 8 of 19Share 42%
What changed: late share 74% at worst → 25% now
Of 16 departures that took off between 7:44 PM and 8:44 PM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 7:44 PM–8:44 PM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 25%Typical 36%
What changed: late share 72% → 68%
Of 22 departures that took off between 6:35 PM and 7:35 PM PST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:35 PM–7:35 PM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 68%Typical 38%
Of 18 departures that took off between 6:15 PM and 7:15 PM PST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. San Diego typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:15 PM–7:15 PM PSTSample 18 flightsLate 72%Typical 37%
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