Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 228 hstaleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 228 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
FAA NAS status is stale (228 h old).
No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.
Lightning is stale (228 h old).
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Weather observations is stale.
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Of 13 departures that took off between 6:00 AM and 7:00 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 7% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 17% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:00 AM–7:00 AM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 0%Typical 7%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View SEA
Of 20 arrivals that landed between 5:44 AM and 6:44 AM PST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:44 AM–6:44 AM PSTSample 20 flightsLate 20%Typical 19%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (8)View SEA
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 45% → 34% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Friday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 22 departures that took off between 11:11 PM and 12:11 AM PST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:11 PM–12:11 AM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 50%Typical 20%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View SEA
Of 27 arrivals that landed between 10:20 PM and 11:20 PM PST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of the 17 departures scheduled from Seattle (SEA) between 11:08 PM and 12:38 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 14. For 1 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SEA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 11:08 PM–12:38 AM PSTTight turns 1 of 14Share 7%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View SEA
Of 35 arrivals that landed between 8:44 PM and 9:44 PM PST, 23 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 36 arrivals that landed between 7:23 PM and 8:23 PM PST, 19 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 34 arrivals that landed between 7:02 PM and 8:02 PM PST, 23 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of the 47 departures scheduled from Seattle (SEA) between 7:22 PM and 8:52 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 36. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SEA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 7:22 PM–8:52 PM PSTTight turns 9 of 36Share 25%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View SEA
Of 33 departures that took off between 5:41 PM and 6:41 PM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 26 departures that took off between 4:33 PM and 5:33 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 27 arrivals that landed between 3:16 PM and 4:16 PM PST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 28 arrivals that landed between 2:55 PM and 3:55 PM PST, 17 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 29 arrivals that landed between 2:26 PM and 3:26 PM PST, 16 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 34 departures that took off between 1:22 PM and 2:22 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 38 departures that took off between 12:23 PM and 1:23 PM PST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 31 arrivals that landed between 11:44 AM and 12:44 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 34 arrivals that landed between 10:20 AM and 11:20 AM PST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:20 AM–11:20 AM PSTSample 34 flightsLate 44%Typical 19%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View SEA
Of 36 arrivals that landed between 9:24 PM and 10:24 PM PST, 19 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 41 arrivals that landed between 8:23 PM and 9:23 PM PST, 28 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 30 arrivals that landed between 4:55 PM and 5:55 PM PST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 24 arrivals that landed between 4:04 PM and 5:04 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.