Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 83 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min
What changed: about 12 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 119 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 13 → 9 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 100 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Of 11 aircraft that landed at Seattle (SEA) between 12:47 AM and 1:47 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 5 took 16 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 6.2 minutes; the median was 13.2 minutes. Usually 3% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.
Landed 12:47 AM–1:47 AM PSTSample 11 arrivalsSlow 45%Usually 3%
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 93 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 42%Horizon 10.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 119 departures scheduled from Seattle 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 18 departures that took off between 11:06 PM and 12:06 AM PST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:06 PM–12:06 AM PSTSample 18 flightsLate 72%Typical 20%
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 9:15 PM and 10:15 PM PST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: about 23 → 12 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: 61% → 73% since the 3:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Seattle 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
What changed: about 9 → 21 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 79 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (26%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
What changed: 64% → 85% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Seattle 6–9 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 1:55 PM and 2:55 PM PST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 100 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 100 departures scheduled from Seattle 3–6 PM Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Tailodds’ model gives the 83 departures scheduled from Seattle 6–9 PM Friday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 6:00 AM and 7:00 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 7% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 17% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:00 AM–7:00 AM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 0%Typical 7%
Of 20 arrivals that landed between 5:44 AM and 6:44 AM PST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:44 AM–6:44 AM PSTSample 20 flightsLate 20%Typical 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 17 departures scheduled from Seattle (SEA) between 11:08 PM and 12:38 AM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 14. For 1 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into SEA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 11:08 PM–12:38 AM PSTTight turns 1 of 14Share 7%
Of 33 departures that took off between 5:41 PM and 6:41 PM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
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Observed
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Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?