tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation SEA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among Seattle departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Seattle departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 62 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSEA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.0 over 62 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST · 3.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Seattle departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSEA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.0 over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 23 among Seattle departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    What changed: about 10 → 23 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 23 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSEA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~23.2 over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 7:00 PM PST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among Seattle departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    What changed: about 23 → 12 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 61 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Friday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSEA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~12.2 over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 13, 9:01 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.