tailodds FORECAST
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Observed Major Resolved Delay SEA departures

Seattle departure delays worsen: 72% late in the last hour

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Observed

    Seattle departures running late: 94% left 15+ min late in the last hour

    Of 18 departures that took off between 6:11 PM and 7:11 PM PST, 17 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window6:11 PM–7:11 PM PST
    Sample18 flights, 17 late (94%)
    Comparison24% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour
    Median delay237.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 03:11 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Observed

    Seattle departure delays ease: 53% late in the last hour, still above normal

    What changed: late share 94% → 53%

    Of 15 departures that took off between 10:24 PM and 11:24 PM PST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window10:24 PM–11:24 PM PST
    Sample15 flights, 8 late (53%)
    Comparison24% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour
    Median delay17.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 07:24 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Observed

    Seattle departure delays worsen: 72% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 53% → 72%

    Of 18 departures that took off between 11:06 PM and 12:06 AM PST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window11:06 PM–12:06 AM PST
    Sample18 flights, 13 late (72%)
    Comparison20% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour
    Median delay97.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 08:06 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:26 AM PST: No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.