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Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Seattle departures noon–3 PM Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Seattle departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SEA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 93 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?