tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay SEA departures

Model raises Seattle departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 85%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SEAFlights at SEA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 64% delay risk for Seattle departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 83 departures scheduled from Seattle 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSEA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)64% over 83 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 1:00 PM PST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Seattle departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 85%

    What changed: 64% → 85% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Seattle 6–9 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSEA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)85% over 82 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM PST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.