tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation SEA departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among Seattle departures 6–9 PM Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SEAFlights at SEA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 9 cancellations among Seattle departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 82 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSEA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.0 over 82 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 3:00 PM PST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among Seattle departures 6–9 PM Friday

    What changed: about 9 → 21 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 79 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (26%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSEA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~20.8 over 79 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 4:00 PM PST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.