Model lowers Seattle departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 30%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 12:27 PM PST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Seattle departures 6–9 PM Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 83 departures scheduled from Seattle 6–9 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SEA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 40% over 83 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 9:00 AM PST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Seattle departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 30%, near normal
What changed: 40% → 30%; calm-weather level 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 83 departures scheduled from Seattle 6–9 PM Friday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SEA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 30% over 83 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 AM PST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-13 20:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?