Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 19 arrivals that landed between 9:52 PM and 10:52 PM MST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 15% of arrivals at Salt Lake City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:52 PM–10:52 PM MSTSample 19 flightsLate 53%Typical 15%
What changed: late share 60% at worst → 17% now
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 9:04 PM and 10:04 PM MST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 15% of arrivals at Salt Lake City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 25% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 9:04 PM–10:04 PM MSTSample 18 flightsLate 17%Typical 15%
What changed: late share 58% at worst → 9% now
Of 22 departures that took off between 9:17 AM and 10:17 AM MST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Salt Lake City typically sees 11% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 21% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 9:17 AM–10:17 AM MSTSample 22 flightsLate 9%Typical 11%
What changed: 41% → 19%; calm-weather level 13%
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 19% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 19%Horizon 7.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 54% at worst → 0% now
Of 24 arrivals that landed between 1:40 PM and 2:40 PM MST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 15% of arrivals at Salt Lake City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 25% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 1:40 PM–2:40 PM MSTSample 24 flightsLate 0%Typical 15%
What changed: late share 50% at worst → 7% now
Of 28 departures that took off between 9:29 AM and 10:29 AM MST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Salt Lake City typically sees 11% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 21% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 9:29 AM–10:29 AM MSTSample 28 flightsLate 7%Typical 11%
What changed: 49% → 24%; calm-weather level 17%
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Monday an average 24% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 24%Horizon 7.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 58% at worst → 14% now
Of 28 departures that took off between 5:11 PM and 6:11 PM MST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Salt Lake City typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:11 PM–6:11 PM MSTSample 28 flightsLate 14%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 56% at worst → 0% now
Of 18 departures that took off between 2:49 PM and 3:49 PM MST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Salt Lake City typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 26% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 2:49 PM–3:49 PM MSTSample 18 flightsLate 0%Typical 16%
What changed: late share 47% at worst → 12% now
Of 16 departures that took off between 1:18 PM and 2:18 PM MST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Salt Lake City typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 26% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 1:18 PM–2:18 PM MSTSample 16 flightsLate 12%Typical 16%
What changed: 44% → 24%; calm-weather level 20%
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Saturday an average 24% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 24%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 16 departures that took off between 9:32 PM and 10:32 PM MST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Salt Lake City typically sees 14% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:32 PM–10:32 PM MSTSample 16 flightsLate 50%Typical 14%
What changed: late share 67% at worst → 8% now
Of 26 departures that took off between 2:53 PM and 3:53 PM MST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Salt Lake City typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 26% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 2:53 PM–3:53 PM MSTSample 26 flightsLate 8%Typical 16%
What changed: late share 58% at worst → 8% now
Of 25 departures that took off between 2:53 PM and 3:53 PM MST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Salt Lake City typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 26% for 30 minutes across 14 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 2:53 PM–3:53 PM MSTSample 25 flightsLate 8%Typical 16%
What changed: late share 50% at worst → 0% now
Of 24 departures that took off between 9:29 AM and 10:29 AM MST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Salt Lake City typically sees 11% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 21% for 31 minutes across 15 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 9:29 AM–10:29 AM MSTSample 24 flightsLate 0%Typical 11%
What changed: late share 75% at worst → 9% now
Of 23 departures that took off between 2:47 PM and 3:47 PM MST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Salt Lake City typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 26% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 2:47 PM–3:47 PM MSTSample 23 flightsLate 9%Typical 16%
What changed: late share 44% at worst → 13% now
Of 23 arrivals that landed between 1:43 PM and 2:43 PM MST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 15% of arrivals at Salt Lake City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 25% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 1:43 PM–2:43 PM MSTSample 23 flightsLate 13%Typical 15%
What changed: late share 75% at worst → 10% now
Of 30 departures that took off between 8:42 PM and 9:42 PM MST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Salt Lake City typically sees 15% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 25% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:42 PM–9:42 PM MSTSample 30 flightsLate 10%Typical 15%
What changed: late share 71% at worst → 6% now
Of 32 arrivals that landed between 7:04 PM and 8:04 PM MST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 15% of arrivals at Salt Lake City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 25% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 7:04 PM–8:04 PM MSTSample 32 flightsLate 6%Typical 15%
What changed: late share 64% at worst → 18% now
Of 17 departures that took off between 5:33 PM and 6:33 PM MST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Salt Lake City typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:33 PM–6:33 PM MSTSample 17 flightsLate 18%Typical 25%
Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 5:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 2.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 41% → 32%; calm-weather level 24%
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City noon–3 PM Sunday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 32%Horizon 8.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Salt Lake City 6–9 PM Sunday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 9:00 PM MDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 21.1 hModel famA-fc-v3
Of 20 arrivals that landed between 9:57 PM and 10:57 PM MDT, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 15% of arrivals at Salt Lake City arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:57 PM–10:57 PM MDTSample 20 flightsLate 45%Typical 15%
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