tailodds FORECAST

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Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.

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Passenger events at your flight's airports

Enter a flight: you see events at its departure and arrival airports, including tight aircraft turns there. Your own flight’s inbound aircraft is on its flight page.

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Type: Cancellation ×Airport: SNA × Clear filters
Cards Terminal
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PST, Nov 13 15 h ago
Forecast Major Developing Escalation Cancellation SNA departures

Updated model now expects about 15 among Orange County departures 6–9 AM Saturday

What changed: about 11 → 15 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 32 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (46%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Expected ~15 cancellationsHorizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) 1 earlier matching update View SNA

Each item is the latest update matching your filters; the event’s current status is on its chip. All updates shows the full chronological wire.

Confirmed
An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?

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