Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1947 LANDED 8:12 PM CT, ~36 MIN LATE

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1947 · DCA → SAT

took off 6:13 PM ET · landed 8:12 PM CT (scheduled 4:59 PM ET → 7:40 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1947 · DCA → SAT

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAT?