Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1947 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 1947 · DCA → SAT

departs 4:59 PM ET · arrives 7:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1947 · DCA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?