Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1947 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 1947 · DCA → SAT

departs 6:32 PM ET · arrives 9:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±7 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

SAT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.55 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1947 · DCA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?