Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1947 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1947 · DCA → SAT

departs 6:32 PM ET · arrives 9:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.52 in

SAT (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1947 · DCA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?