Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2218 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AA 2218 · ORD → AUS

departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 11:13 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2218 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?