Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2819 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

AA 2819 · ORD → PHL

departs 3:29 PM CT · arrives 6:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2819 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?