Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 458 IN THE AIR (OFF 8:22 PM ET, ETA 10:40 PM CT)

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 458 · MIA → MSP

took off 8:22 PM ET · expected to land 10:40 PM CT (scheduled 9:22 PM ET → 12:09 AM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSP?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 757 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.18 in

MSP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling757 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.79 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 458 · MIA → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?