Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 407 IN THE AIR (OFF 4:09 PM CT, ETA 5:59 PM PT)

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 407 · ORD → SEA

took off 4:09 PM CT · expected to land 5:59 PM PT (scheduled 3:43 PM CT → 6:22 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 407 · ORD → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?