Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 407 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 407 · ORD → SEA

departs 3:43 PM CT · arrives 6:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.11 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 407 · ORD → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?