AS 407 · ORD → SEA

departs 3:43 PM CT · arrives 6:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.53 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 407 · ORD → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?