Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 407 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

Friday, October 2

AS 407 · ORD → SEA

departs 3:43 PM CT · arrives 6:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 91h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Friday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±12 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
66%
15 min–1 hour late
26%
Over 1 hour late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

Typical odds come from past years’ weather on this date, so there are no forecast drivers yet.

Weather at each end

Too early for a weather forecast for Fri, Oct 2. These odds use the weather this date has had in past years; the forecast for ORD and SEA appears here about 3 days before departure.

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 407 · ORD → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?