Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
DL 1865 · IAH → DTW
departs 3:27 PM CT · arrives 7:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1 30%
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.