DL 2565 · MSP → BWI

took off 2:47 PM CT · landed 5:53 PM ET (scheduled 2:41 PM CT → 6:15 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BWI?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.54 in

BWI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility9.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2565 · MSP → BWI

Odds over time

How late did it get to BWI?