Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3185
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
DL 3185 · MSP → STL
departs 3:15 PM CT · arrives 4:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1 16%
Fri 10/2 21%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
3pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.90 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.