Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3185
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
DL 3185 · MSP → STL
departs 3:15 PM CT · arrives 4:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 17%
Fri 10/2 21%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at MSP that day
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.