Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3185
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 3185 · MSP → STL
departs 3:15 PM CT · arrives 4:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 9/30 23%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 21%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↑
3pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MSP that day
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.